the number of people in the United States who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week decreased, indicating that the US economy avoided a large-scale wave of layoffs in the final stage of 2024. The US Department of Labor said on Thursday that in the week ending December 21, 219,000 people applied for new unemployment benefits, compared to 220,000 the previous week and a market expectation of 225,000. The current US unemployment rate is 4.2%, which is still relatively mild compared to the past decade. However, during 2024, the unemployment rate has slightly increased, which is a sign of a softening labor market, reflected in the decrease in job vacancies corresponding to each job seeker, the decrease in the number of new employment positions, and more industries reducing recruitment. According to CME “Fed Watch”, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is still 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%.